West Nile Virus (WNV) is an arbovirus that infects birds and is spread by Culex mosquitoes.  West Nile Virus has been detected in over 150 bird species, with morbidity and mortality of avian hosts varying significantly between clades. Changing climate, land use and biodiversity loss will influence the distribution of both avian hosts and mosquitoes, impacting the spread of vector-borne diseases. To identify potential hotspots of WNV outbreaks, we used MaxEnt species niche distribution modeling and ArcGIS Pro to model the habitat distribution of one high-competency amplifying host (American Robin [T. migratorius]), one low-competency host (Common Raven [C. corax]), and one supersuppressor host (Northern Cardinal [C. cardinalis]) of WNV  in Coconino County, Arizona.  We included other variables influencing habitat use and distribution, such as temperature, rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index, and elevation. We found that the ranges of all high-competency bird species shifted seasonally, with contracted distributions in the spring.  Understanding how the distributions of hosts shift under different climatic scenarios will allow both wildlife conservation and public health professionals to identify potential transmission ‘hotspots’ and perform proactive measures to mitigate future outbreaks.

Projections of host habitat distribution shifts due to future climate change models are currently being generated.

This work has been presented at The Wildlife Society's Annual Conference (October 2024, Baltimore, MD) and The Arizona and New Mexico The Wildlife Society Joint Annual Meeting (February 2025, Albuquerque, NM).